The Path to a Future: Flat Sharing

For my entire working life the conventional wisdom seems to have been that only a mug would pay their full share of taxes, and that it was every citizen’s duty to reduce their responsibilities in this area to a minimum. Those who succeeded in paying the least amount of taxes have generally been lauded as heroes.

Continue reading “The Path to a Future: Flat Sharing”

The Path to a Future: LOVE Thy Neighbour

If we are to make the urgent progress that we need to on The Path to a Future, we need to do it together. Areas of blight and conflict will be a drag on all of our progress, because they will suck resources away from more effective uses. The people in conflict are unlikely to participate in the global initiatives needed, such as tackling climate change. We need a coherent policy structure that protects the progress of those that are already building The Path, and provides on-ramps to The Path for the victims of oppression and conflict today, but who will join us tomorrow.

One of the more curious spectacles of our time is the apparent futility, cluelessness and impotence of the world’s governments, especially of the richest countries, in developing coherent strategies toward so-called “rogue states” or “failed states”.

Continue reading “The Path to a Future: LOVE Thy Neighbour”

#OCCUPY the Ballot Box

The conundrum of the Occupy movement’s “missing list of demands” is the key to understanding what has to be done.

Protest in a democracy represents a conundrum. Do we want change or do we want to complain?

Who doesn’t realize that our modern world is not serving the majority of us? Probably not even 1% – do you know anyone? We all know the banks have gotten away with theft. We all know politics has been, and is being further, corrupted by money. It’s not difficult to understand that burning millions of barrels of oil into the air every day and dumping tons of man-made chemicals into our waters is affecting our environment detrimentally. Let’s not do ourselves a diservice: we all know that “things ain’t right, and something’s gotta change”.

Our predicament is not in dispute. The solution is.

The fundamental obstacle to a solution is complexity. The reality of our modern world is that it is complex: the banking system is complex, sovereign accounting is complex, the interdependencies of our environment are complex. To understand why writing down half the value of some debts in one of the smallest economies in the modern world could affect the political stability of the largest country in the world is complex; to understand why the largest country can’t just step in a fix that problem is even more complex.

There’s a perfectly natural resistance in the Occupy movement to adopting a “simple set of demands” because, consciously and unconsciously, we all understand that our predicament will not yield to a simple solution or short list of demands. Matt Taibbi, one of the most dogged and brilliant journalists on the financial beat, recognizes this even as he offers a short list of key changes that could be made to address the specific problems resulting from casino capitalism in our overweight financial sector; but, good as his list is, it does not address why we have an overweight financial sector in the first place.

The Occupy movement is a protest movement. It takes its name and its inspiration of the occupation strategy employed by the revolutionaries in Egypt this spring, and it is stirring the wider public to more open consideration of changes that seemed inconceivable only a few years ago. But the difference is that the Egyptians were revolting against a dictatorship and they could coalesce around the simple demand that the dictator be removed; in contrast the Occupy movement is almost exclusively active in wealthy democracies, and cannot reasonably demand the removal of a government chosen by the people a few years ago and available for replacement in a few years time.

The lack of a simple set of demands is not a purposeful tactic of the Occupy movement, it is the manifestation of an understanding that the problems are more complex than a simple list could address. Housing, healthcare, tax policy, the environment, social security, employment and inequality are all prevalent issues expressed in the Occupy protests, and such a broad agenda does not lend itself to a simple list of demands. The protestors can point to the simple manifestations of the problems in their lives, but they also know that any real solutions are going to be complex.

To move forward we need to remember that what appears as complex is in fact just lots of simple things seen at once. And while you cannot solve a complex problem with a simple solution, you can solve a thousand simple problems with a thousand simple solutions. This is the key to system change: it’s not one big solution, it’s a million small solutions.

Self-evidently: every aspect of human society has been created by us, and so it can be re-created by us. But we did not arrive here in one stroke, we are where we are as a result of the culmination of millions of small and simple decisions taken by people like us. When democracy arose it was the next vital step in enabling the broadest possible collective application of decision making to complex problems; and it lies before us now with the same urgent potential that drove its early advocates with such zeal. The short list of demands can be replaced with one: “Occupy the Ballot Box!”

We do not need anyone’s permission, we are not dependent on anyone else’s favors or attention – we are the ones who can bring about the changes we need, one decision at a time. We already have what the Egyptians in Tahrir Square died for: the right to select our own government.

If you support the Occupy protests you must take the next decision and vote for real change. If there’s no one to vote for, you must stand for change yourself – you don’t have to be perfect, you don’t have to know it all, you just have to care enough to be one of a million decision makers who will contribute to the long list of solutions. If you want to stand for election but need a broad platform that fills in and addresses the complex issues raised in the Occupy protests, take what you want from the Standards of LIFE and make it your own. We will vote with you, we will stand with you and we will bring change to our world together.

More money is not the answer

We need to occupy our communities and demand less money, rather than occupying corporate spaces and demand more money.

More money for banks. More money for governments. More money for small businesses. More money for social services. More money for everything – who could disagree with that!?

Apparently the US and the UK are so short of money that their central bankers have had to print trillions more just to keep the wheel of society turning. Banks whose capital base consists of nothing more than bits of paper have apparently run out of the ability to write more bits of paper and now need others to print paper for them. Whole nations that voluntarily gave up the right to print their own pieces of paper are apparently on the brink of collapse without someone else lending them more bits of paper.

This situation is evidently insane. The problem is NOT too little money! The problem is TOO MUCH MONEY!

We talk of not being able to provide for our old age security without money… horse shit! You’ll only need money if no one else will help you. We talk of unemployment, when there is evidently so much basic work to be done around us building and maintaining and improving our communities. We have come to conceptualize ourselves as living in a world of individual separateness in which transactions can only occur when greased by the flow of printed pieces of paper. But this concept does not withstand even the merest scrutiny, in fact it requires deliberate denial all the time. We all know that we are people, living with others and largely dependent on each other to get through any single day. We are dependent on each others good graces, compassion, empathy and generosity – even for the most basic restraint of not running us down with their car in the carpark!

We have not run out of money, we have just run out the capacity for money to substitute for reality.

The frail reality of the theater set we have built to act out our life-play in is upon us. Soon it must surely become too obvious to ignore: neither we, nor our world, are built from money. We are flesh and bone progeny of the earth beneath our feet, and “our world” is but a social construct designed by us to support our huge number.

Money has a role, an important role, but it is just a role in the wider context of our society. Enterprise is a natural aspect of human society, and business is a good thing. But lack of money and lack of economic activity are not what ails us – there isn’t enough money in all the world to fix our social disconnectedness. Money cannot be used to pay for everything, it is an instrument for the exchange of surplus value and if we try to use it as a substitute for the value of life it loses its value, and its role collapses. This is the lesson of our times: we must learn to see the reality of our mutual interdependence and lose the illusion of separateness that our plunge into industrial capitalism pulled over our eyes.

We need to occupy our communities and demand less money, rather than occupying corporate spaces to demand more money. When we start giving ourselves the right to live in the reality we are already in we will not need to protest others to give us permission.

The Path to a Future: Middle East Peace

The touchstone or the tombstone of modern politics, depending on your perspective. Finding a solution to the Israeli- Palestinian conflict, and for peace in the region more generally, has been the avowed intention of many a politician, inside and outside the region, for many a year. But as I write this, the arc of this particular history seems to be bending further and further down.

To quote an editorial leader in one of my favorite political magazines du jour, although quite frankly this could be found in just about any piece written anywhere about the Middle East, “only a negotiated agreement between strong and unified leadership on both sides can provide the security and peace that the Palestinians and Israelis deserve.” Really? A top down solution? I guess if either side really had a strong and unified leadership then maybe they would be able to negotiate a peace, but the reality is that neither side does, and they haven’t and quite possibly, now they can’t. But if we set ourselves up with an insurmountable barrier at the start, how do we expect to make any progress?

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is an example of a situation that is repeated in many parts of the world, and perhaps that is why it holds such a fascination for so many. The migrations and movements of people are inevitably accompanied by tensions around the matters of political control and resource allocation; this is especially so when they happen in a short period of time, and are accompanied by military might. So finding a solution in the Middle East also provides a guiding light for solutions in many other parts of the world.

Probably the reason that there hasn’t been peace in Israel or Palestine is because the obvious solution is not in the interests of any of the parties, except the people that actually live there. There are also many factors that result in external actors having their own interests in the outcome. These distortions have resulted in almost every single state in the entire region having a dysfunctional power structure, and some of those states are also deeply threatened by the obvious solution for Israel- Palestine.

So what is this obvious solution? Democracy. Not 20th century Western-style democracy, the solution here has to be super-democracy. Super-democracy has a multi-layer structure based on the foundation of Community constituencies. Each Community is fundamentally and constitutionally in complete command of its destiny. Each Community voluntarily associates with other Communities around it to form the larger constituency of a Region, which provides a mechanism for collaboration and sharing. Regions have their own elected governments, and also voluntarily associate with other Regions to form States. All of this is spelled out in a universal constitution adopted by all constituencies.

This solution requires that everyone agrees that peace is the supreme objective. Peace is necessary for our mutual survival, but if we cannot steal ourselves to promote it to the top of our agendas, we cannot have a solution.

The solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is for the people to first divide their land into Communities. Then each Community conducts their own election and forms their own government. Each Community is a voluntary association of residents and must be geographically reasonable (meaning with a population of about 10,000; but not greater than 100,000 or less than 1,000). It can only include land actually inhabited by residents, or land which is closer to a resident than it is to a resident of any other Community. No Community has the rightof- way through any other Community, nor any authority over the people of another Community. All this must happen within the framework of the rule of law so that the use of violence or force is impossible (here is a role in which parties external to the conflict can provide useful assistance as guarantors of the peace, by staffing a “peace force”).

This brings us to the first contentious issue: defining who is a resident. This is a key factor in the resolution of these kinds of situations, and must reconcile the desire to make progress immediately, while avoiding the reward of recent aggressions. If a principle is established that recognizes recent displacement, it only encourages displacement in other conflicts. So we pick a date that does not reward recent changes in population placement, and does not seek to redress history. This is known as the Determination Date (D-Date). All those displaced between the D-Date and the current time can claim residency at the place they were on the D-Date. For Israel-Palestine, 1st January 2000 would seem about right, as it reflects the last deadline from the last major peace negotiation, Oslo.

There is a subtlety to this process that we should note explicitly. Those with legal residency of a place as of the D-Date, are those who have the right to select their membership of a specific Community. This does not mean that others currently living there have to move immediately. D-Date residents define the boundaries of each Community, and are automatically citizens of the new Community. As citizens, they are the only voters in the first election for a Community assembly. Once the assembly has been elected, it has authority over the recognition of residency, and the criteria for citizenship. Under the Constitution, residency and citizenship cannot be revoked once established or granted.

Once elected, a Community assembly may grant residency to anyone they wish to, provided they can supply the basic services to them, as is their responsibility under the Constitution. At this point those living within the boundaries of that Community but without residency, will have to move to a Community willing to accept them. Let’s pause for a moment and imagine the state of the process at this point. All the land that is currently defined by the borders of Israel and the Palestinian Territories is operating as a suspended state with a caretaker administration. That administration is charged solely with the maintenance of vital infrastructure and social services, with the aim of minimizing the disruption of people’s ordinary lives. Over the caretaker administration there is a “peace force”, consisting of Israeli, Palestinian and international forces charged with the enforcement of law and order, and the prevention of violence. So the people are effectively living in a suspended political environment that will last until such time as Community, Region and State elections have been held. This period of suspension should be less than two years.

As Community boundaries are defined, those Communities proceed immediately to the election of their assembly. As soon as the Community governments have been elected they can assume control of policy within their boundaries. One of the first matters that the assembly has to attend to is the business of establishing their Regional affiliation, bearing in mind that they must be geographically contiguous with any Region they wish to be a part of. Each Community can start making decisions about what aspects of law they wish to retain unto themselves, and what they want to promote to higher layers; as well as establishing a court system and local police force tasked with the maintenance of basic law and order inside that Community.

Within a few months it should be possible to draw the boundaries of Regions based on the self-determined, voluntary associations of the Communities. Once Regional boundaries are established, there can be Regional elections to form Regional governments. At this point the Communities and their Regions can begin the important work of building their infrastructures, and assuming responsibility from the caretaker government for the provision of core services to their constituents. Much work can be done on formalizing the Variable Law structure so that, by the time that state elections are scheduled, each Region has clarity about those aspects of law that have been promoted to them by their Communities, and therefore which aspects they have the option of promoting to their State. This is important because what the States will have authority for will be critical in shaping the manifestos of candidates for the State assemblies.

At this juncture, the Communities will be in control of their own environment; including the definition of their migration policies, and responsible to their constituents for the safety and functionality of their Community. The Communities have made their initial selection of Regional association, although they are at liberty to change that association at their own election. As each constituency elects its own government, and assumes control of its specific area, the role of the “peace force” will be diminished. It becomes solely the guarantor of peace between Regions, until such time as State elections have been held.

This devolution of power and control down to the individual Communities will greatly empower the large majority of the population that seeks peace and sustainable prosperity. Admittedly, there is likely to be a concentration of those people that would seek to impose their worldview on others into certain Communities of like mind; however they will be dependent on the cooperation of surrounding Communities, and this is likely to influence their positions over time. This process does not force any Community to change its mind or take up any particular position, so those who wish to maintain extremist or isolationist attitudes will be free to do so, within the constraints of the rule of law and the Constitution.

Eventually there will be State elections. Each State will cover an area defined by those Regions which choose to associate into that State; this may be a single state, it may be two states or it may even be multiple states. By this stage in the process, the Communities and Regions will have determined for themselves those aspects of power and control that they wish to retain unto themselves, so the eventual governments of whatever States are formed will have a much narrower remit than we see in the typical nationstate of today.

At the end of this process of building up layers of enfranchisement, starting at Communities which self assemble into Regions, and then Regions which form States, there will be democratic institutions in place which can assume the full range of governmental responsibilities from the caretaker administration. The final map will not be drawn until after the final State election. Even then the map will remain fluid, as Communities and Regions retain the right to change their associations at the behest of their citizens.

The next logical step would be for the States to form a Transterritory with other States in the region; however this will require that those other nations go through the same enfranchisement process that the peoples of the former Israel- Palestine will have completed.

It’s not a particularly bold solution, nor is democracy a new idea. What it is, is the determined application of a system that is inherently natural and just – that is the hallmark of The Path. The two greatest challenges are likely to be restraining the violent tendencies of those who would rather not be subject to the rigors of democracy, and restricting the interference of external actors of every hue, from every corner of the world. The solutions to problems in an area must be developed by the people living in that area. This is a plain, obvious and unavoidable fact. Those outside the area must accept the consequences of true democracy.

Does this solution require that Israel and Palestine have “strong and unified leadership” today, before they embark on this process? I don’t think so. Only to the extent that it is necessary to make the decision to start down The Path. One of the beauties of the super-democratic path is that it removes the need for small elites to negotiate extremely complex and intricate resolutions to the many and specific problems on the ground. It does this by devolving those responsibilities down to the individual communities most affected. They are the ones most able to arbitrate the minutia contextualized in the benefits of the peace that they seek most urgently, and will feel most keenly.

The basic question that is resolved through this process is: “Does this piece of land belong to that country or this country?” It’s really a nonsensical question because, of course, the answer is: it belongs to the people that live there, and it’s up to them to decide what country they want to be part of. All that the superdemocratic process does, is provide a mechanism that allows people to determine their own future, their own identity and to make their own associations.

There are those who call this solution naïve. They point out that on the extremes of both Israeli and Palestinian opinion there are those for whom peace is not the ultimate objective. They are right. The question is whether we wish to be held hostage by the shortsighted. There must be a solution that leads to the cessation of hostilities and provides the opportunity for all to focus on the future, because we are all mutually dependent on reaching that destination. What this solution does is emphasize the dignity of self-determination, and in so doing provides a path out of the quagmire. It does not pretend that today’s reality is anything other than what it is and it does not describe a way forward that will not have difficulties, challenges and complications. But this is a realistic framework that builds on the humanity of individuals in their communities to create a structure that allows differences to live next to each other. For surely, a way forward must be found and it must be found now. Inaction and despair are not solutions. There are children in every corner of the land who will thank their forebears for persevering through the clouded landscape to bring peace to their lives today.

On a wider note, it is almost inconceivable to believe that the enfranchisement of Israeli and Palestinian communities to determine their own futures will not have ramifications for surrounding states, and perhaps the entire world. Those who are interested in navigating The Path to a sustainable future must be ready and willing to help those states, their governments and their people, make an orderly transition to super-democracy themselves.

Everybody everywhere in the world should live in a super-democratic system, and if we’re serious about reaching the destination of a sustainably prosperous future, we need to set about making this a reality where we live… now!

 


Part 18 in the serialization of the The Path to A Future.
A new section will be posted every 2 weeks during 2011. Enjoy!
To get a free PDF of the book go to www.standardsoflife.org/thepathtoafuture.

 

LIFE SPAN – 2011.08.20 – Europe’s Future

Special edition of LIFESPAN : A LIFE Plan for Europe.

LIFE SPAN 2011.08.20 – Europe’s Future

Situational Policy Analysis & News from LIFE

Situation – Debts and Dangers

Like the rest of the industrial world, the only way forward for Europe is to “grow” its economy, otherwise it cannot sustain repayment of its debts. Those debts in the short past are national debts, that were inherited in the medium past from profligate banks and governments, and in the long past belong to everyone in Europe because in the aggregate everyone was supping at the same table and gave their permission to those that sat at the head of the table.

While the discussions now are centered around the €uro as a currency and how to prevent individual countries inside the €urozone from going bankrupt; the real, underlying, critically important issue is how to foster growth. By “growth” what is meant is an increase in the economic activity that creates wealth, because if the interest on what you owe is greater than your rate of wealth-growth (which it is in pretty much every European country) you can never get out of debt.

All of these currency and growth issues are exacerbated by the fact that today’s practice of the European social model in not yet fully mature (see Policy below for the mature model) and so the European countries are continuing to rack up more debt every year!

If your situation looks like this (which it does in pretty much every European country), you’re in serious trouble:

  • Debts are already > 80% of your annual output
  • Interest on your debts is > 2.5%
  • Growth is < 2%
  • Annual additional borrowing is > 5%

But what comes next is the REALLY dangerous stage for Europe. This is not a prediction of what will happen, but it is a picture of what could happen if we don’t work to change course soon:

  1. In order to stave off the collapse of regional economies that would result from the failure of the Euro currency: the larger, more export-orientated countries will have to assume responsibility for the debts of all EU countries.
  2. Ironically, because the EU was not built on firm democratic ground there will be political backlash across the continent against a political class making fundamental decisions about what Europe looks like and works like, without gaining the support of their citizens for such moves. The “leaders” making the decisions lack the legitimacy of pan-European democratic representation.
  3. Despite the best attempts of Europe, America and China to maintain the financial world order, they will fail to achieve sufficient growth to make the system financially sustainable; never mind the fact that they aren’t even focussed on making it socially sustainable.
  4. European politics will polarize and degenerate to reactionary stances with insular perspectives, all the while sucking on the teat of petro-energy and destroying each other and the planet.

The situation is serious and dangerous. Serious because without growth in demand, there cannot be growth in the economies; and without economic growth pretty much every nation’s debts are unserviceable and, therefore, so is the entire world financial system. Dangerous because the collapse of the world economic order will result in conflict, and distract everyone from the urgent task of reaching sustainable balance. If we don’t want the middle of the 21st C to look like the middle of the 20th C, bathed in the added stench of climate rot, we need to come to grips with the situation we are in, and devise a path out of here that serves our most civilized intentions. The European model MUST succeed, and show the rest of the world the path away from conflict, towards sustainable prosperity – this is Europe’s responsibility and opportunity.

Policy – The LIFE Plan for Europe

The LIFE plan to get us from where we are now to where we want to be, consists of three major milestones:

  1. Re-establish the proposal for “Europe”, with a clearly laid out structure and schedule that leads to voluntarily unified social, political, fiscal and monetary union(s).
  2. Stabilize the short term, by defining the intermediate status of the currency, the nation states and all debts.
  3. Initiate the rapid re-democratization of regions and nations on the continent with the goal of being able to have pan-continental elections of voluntarily associated states within 7 years.

This ambitious plan is substantially more achievable than you might at first imagine. The nation states that make up the vast bulk of the European content already have well established democratic systems that allow their populations to make informed choices, so they can all reasonably conduct their normal democratic schedules and elect representation that can express their desires for or against specific unifications with other nation states, and do so within the given timeframe.

The dire need to stabilize the current situation makes a clear annunciation of intention in everyone’s interests, including all of the bond holders. The proposal is not complicated, it is simply that: the communities, regions and states that comprise the continent of Europe will freely choose their association, and in so doing create one or more transterritorial, integrated socio-political-fiscal entities which will in turn assume the assets and debts ascribed to them under the constitution, Section 1.

In the meantime, all existing bonds will be guaranteed in full and attract interest at their current rate or 2.5%, whichever is lower. Any bonds falling due between now and 7 years will be automatically rolled over for 5 years from their date of maturity. This protects the interests of the bond holders while removing the Sword of Damocles from the existing sovereign states.

The proposal for “Europe” shall be the creation of one or more Transterritories, each comprised of no less than 3 States, each of which shall be comprised of no less than 3 Regions. A skeleton Constitution will be universally adopted at the outset to provide the framework for the formation of the new, freely-associated memberships. Upon the election of each transterritorial Assembly, that Assembly will be at liberty to amend their constitution according to the wishes of their citizens.

Crucially the new Europe will be based on a new citizen contract in which the social welfare model is transformed into a wellfair model that provides comprehensive and universal social services, instead of the cash grant system in place today. That every citizen is endowed with access to basic services that support life and opportunity is maintained, but that such support is a mutual gift provided to the extent that it is affordable for all. This maturation of the empathic social model resolves the fundamental unsustainability of the cash welfare system by absorbing the hygiene portion of labour costs into the society and liberating the commercial economy to deliver on its full potential.

The growth that will make the inherited debt burdens sustainable will come from the unleashing of the latent microeconomic potential that industrial capitalism stifles. This large engine of wealth is obscured by the immature practice of both economic and social policy that is the norm in current European societies. It will require effort and diligence for Europeans to meet their obligations, but it is most definitely an achievable task within the standard timeframe for sovereign debt (i.e. 20 to 30 years). And at the same time that Europe is proving that it understands responsibility, it will also be proving that sustainability is achievable.

Analysis – A Light for the LIFE of the World

Change is not an option, it is a requirement. The truth is that the situation in Europe is not merely a circumstance that provides an opportunity for change, it is the eventual destination of all societies with immature social and economic systems. The confusion at the root of the industrial economic model and the arrogance of early democratic models means that they were fatally flawed from the outset. They were never capable of being permanent structures for a sustainable world, and yet we have persisted in their agenda beyond the end of their useful remit. Now we must face our responsibility to refine and develop our social and economic structures, to advance them beyond the visions of our ancestors, to fashion human civilization that honors, justifies and respects the influence over all life on Earth that the development of our species has imbued in us.

The achievement of a civilized and peaceful resolution of Europe’s problems, through the creation of freely-associated populations, working peacefully together for our mutual prosperity, while laying a sustainable foundation for our societies and our economies, will provide a shining beacon of light to the whole world that progression out of the darkness of conflict and the misery of crony industrial capitalism is not only dreamable, but is also practical. The whole world looks to Europe to show what they know is possible, and the people of Europe are ready to meet the challenge and shoulder the responsibility of demonstrating that sustainable peace and prosperity are the inalienable rights of all.

All of the great civilizations that proceeded Europe have enjoyed extended periods of peace and prosperity, some lasting for 100s of years. Europe has not competed a single century in the last 2,000 years that wasn’t defined by conflict and war. The modern world is a cake largely baked by Europeans, and now it is time to complete the process and ice the cake. Talk of Europe’s fading relevance and ossification are but excuses, it is plain to see that people in the rest of the world look to Europe to prove that the model they are adopting can be made to work.

News – LIFE Party launching in the UK in 2012, and the rest of Europe in 201… ?

Starting next year the LIFE Party will launch in the UK to run for the 2015 General Election. We can start LIFE Parties in every European democracy during 2012 to bring responsive politics to every corner of the continent that is the cradle of democracy. To make that a reality and be part bringing sustainable prosperity to your part of the world, send an email to start@lifeparty.org and we will help you get started with tools, frameworks and campaigns.

This the third issue of the newsletter from LIFE: Situational Policy Analysis and News (SPAN). LIFE SPAN is published online and provides more in-depth coverage of situations at the forefront of public policy at the current time.

To keep information flowing we encourage you to sign up for direct delivery of LIFE SPAN to your mailbox, so that any disruptions in the availability of Facebook, the blog site or the web wiki site do not affect your ability to get the latest news and updates from LIFE. Just subscribe to this website, you can always unsubscribe at a later date if you want to. We will never share your email with any other organization.

LIFE SPAN – 2011.08.10 – Fire, Riots & Remedies

LIFE SPAN 2011.08.10

Situational Policy Analysis & News from LIFE

Subscribe at lifespan@standardsoflife.org


Situation – No Growth without Fire

The industrial world is trapped, surrounded by a ring of fire. The only way forward for them is to “grow their economies”, but they are finding that they cannot grow. They cannot grow for two reasons, a double ‘liquidity’ trap:

  • Their economies are based on oil, and every time it looks like growth might be picking up, the price of that liquid shoots up and sucks the gas out of the engine, so to (s)peak.
  • There is insufficient ‘demand’ (i.e. people can’t afford to, or won’t, buy).

Today’s industrial economies everywhere are hydro-carbon economies: they are reliant for the majority of their power on oil, gas or coal (except France at 78% nuclear – see SPAN 2011.05.01). The supply of these non-renewable resources is constrained and possibly dwindling, so whenever the expectation is that industrial economies will grow the price of these energy resources goes up, the higher the expectations are for growth the higher the price of the energy. Basically we are in a trap, the cost of growing is too high and any wealth generated by growth is syphoned off to the sellers of oil, gas and coal.

Demand growth is non-existent because wealth-creating production has been separated from wealth-spending consumption. Production is now located in economies that cannot afford to consume the output, and the proposed consumers are located in economies that are no longer producing sufficient wealth because the production has been relocated to somewhere where people can afford to consume even less. This is true of Germany, USA and just about every other industrial “economy”. So, on top of the heavy debt burden that people (aka “consumers”) in the developed nations have assumed, their means of wealth generation has been removed.

There are two options proffered by the old, left of center traditions: increase government spending and borrowing to increase aggregate demand, and increase the supply of money so that money is so cheap it will be worth investing in almost anything rather than have it lying idle. Both of these have been tried in the current situation and both are failing. Governments and people are already so debt laden than they cannot borrow any more without reaching evidently beyond their capacity to repay, so they cannot spend any more without raising taxes, meaning that they would not be increasing aggregate demand. The second option of increasing the money supply has already been done as much as it possibly can be, and now central banks are tapped out and in a ‘liquidity trap’ (where printing more money does nothing, and interest rates cannot be lowered because they are already at 0%).

The situation is terminal. Without growth in demand, there cannot be growth in the economies; and without economic growth pretty much every nation’s debts are unserviceable and, therefore, so is the entire world financial system. This is a serious situation: for the last 100+ years we have been investing the security of our civilizations in the development of an internationally and intercontinentally accepted trading system (aka ‘finance’). We need a way out of this before too many people notice the emperor has no clothes, otherwise our common advances in civilization will be set back by more than a few riots. This is not to say that we should save the bankers, far from it! But we can transition peacefully to sustainable prosperity, if we decide to – it takes more work and greater courage than sitting back and watching it all burn down, but that’s what being civilized is all about.

Policy – Fighting Fire with Water

There are two ways to grow without running straight into the fire:

  • Unleash the internal markets in our local and regional communities.
  • Decarbonize our infrastructure.

Deliberate policies focused on these two objectives will deliver wealth-producing growth in the economies and societies that have the foresight to enact them. And the industrial societies are best placed to engage in them.

The water that will nourish our local communities is symbolized by water itself: water is a natural resource that everyone recognizes as being the free entitlement of everyone else, to procure in sufficient quantity to sustain their life. Through this easy example we reveal to ourselves that we all believe that everyone else has the right to the bare necessities of life. Now if we take that insight as a principle, we can easy develop a social structure that embodies it as policy, and in so doing we unleash the natural microeconomic potential of our societies to generate wealth. There is no such thing as unemployment, there is only wasted time.

The most urgent task in front of us is also where we will be able to generate the greatest wealth: developing and modernizing the infrastructures on which our civilization stands. We have much work to do to simply achieve the basics of clean water for everyone and renewable energy for all; these two endeavors will keep a generation busy in productive work.

But both of these simple turns require that we deliberately develop policies in our societies that make them a priority and a reality. That means having governments aligned with them, and that means electing representatives who will ensure they are the priorities. Are you waiting for someone?

Analysis – A Bonfire of the Polities

The riots in London, the student protests in Chile, the drug wars in the Americas, the uprisings in the Middle East and the protests in China all point to the same chasm separating the ruling polities and the politics of the people. Even in the most established democracies we have disjointed the interests of the ruling classes and the interests of everyone else. To see the politicians consistently and continuously act against the interests of the great majority of the people they purport to represent, you’d think that they’d have to lie to get elected!

Here’s a sampling is widely held opinions in the populaces of today’s industrial ‘democracies’ that the elected politicians don’t seem be able to bring themselves to enact:

  • we shouldn’t be imprisoning people for taking drugs
  • better quality education needs to be more widely available and more accessible by all
  • nuclear power is just too dangerous and too badly managed to be better bet than renewables
  • we need to do big things to decarbonize our infrastructures now
  • the banks should be working for the people, not the other way around
  • banks that go bust, should go bust
  • there should be more social services universally available, especially medical care
  • more local control
  • more responsive, accessible and accountable politicians
  • no wars, no arms trading, no nuclear weapons
  • more freedom and better information

There is a basic disconnect between the people and their politicians, and lot of that has to do with scale – the world’s population has multiplied many times over and we are still using the same government structures we were 100 years ago. Without multilayered democratic structures we cannot have accountable representation.
Fixing the disconnect is going to mean making big changes to the way we organize ourselves and our politics, so we have to be prepared to make big changes. We are going to have give up on our “not as bad as the other guy” voting, we are going to have to accept that we are all in this together and we are going to have to grow into our full responsibility for each other and the planet that homes us. Many of our tired attachments will have to go onto the bonfire if we are to escape the backdraft. Burn, baby, burn! It’s OK, it wasn’t working any way… time to try something new.

News – LIFE Party launching in the UK in 2012

Starting next year the LIFE Party will launch in the UK to run for the 2015 General Election – to win! We will be looking for strong local candidates to stand in every constituency on a LIFE Party ticket to bring responsive politics to every corner of the land that is the grandmother of democracy. To be part of the movement that will bring sustainable prosperity to the UK and then the rest of the world, send an email to uk@lifeparty.org and we will keep you informed of developments as they happen.

This the second issue of the newsletter from LIFE: Situational Policy Analysis and News (SPAN). LIFE SPAN is published online and provides more in-depth coverage of situations at the forefront of public policy at the current time.

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